¿Qué pasa con la RAM, SSD y memorias en 2025–2026?

En los últimos meses, la industria global de semiconductores está experimentando una disrupción sin precedentes: los precios de la memoria (DRAM, NAND/SSD, módulos RAM para PC) se han disparado, la disponibilidad de componentes esenciales se ha reducido drásticamente y varios fabricantes clave han decidido abandonar el mercado de consumo. Esta crisis amenaza con encarecer y complicar la compra de PCs, portátiles, consolas, smartphones, y afectar incluso proyectos de IA.

La causa principal: el auge desenfrenado de la inteligencia artificial (IA) y el esfuerzo masivo por construir y equipar centros de datos. Las infraestructuras de IA exigentes requieren enormes cantidades de memoria, especialmente memoria de alto ancho de banda (HBM) y DRAM de alta capacidad — y estos requerimientos están consumiendo la mayor parte de la producción global disponible.

Causas: por qué suben los precios y escasea la memoria

• Demanda masiva de IA y data centers

El crecimiento explosivo de la IA generativa, aprendizaje automático, entrenamiento de modelos a gran escala y despliegue en servidores ha detonado una demanda sin precedentes de memoria. Las empresas que construyen centros de datos, grandes modelos de lenguaje y soluciones de IA requieren cantidades enormes de DRAM, HBM y almacenamiento NAND/SSD.

Algunos contratos recientes muestran la magnitud del consumo: por ejemplo, un proyecto de IA requeriría decenas de miles de wafers de memoria por mes, lo que equivale a una proporción significativa del suministro global disponible.

Este despunte en la demanda ha forzado a los fabricantes a priorizar pedidos de grandes clientes corporativos y de IA, dejando al mercado de consumo con casi “lo que sobra” (y muchas veces, nada).

• Reducción de producción para memoria “tradicional” en favor de memoria especializada

Para satisfacer los pedidos de memoria de alto rendimiento (HBM, DRAM para servidores, etc.), varios productores han redirigido su capacidad productiva. Esto implica menores líneas de producción para memoria convencional usada en PCs y dispositivos de consumo.

El resultado: menor oferta global de módulos DDR4/DDR5 y NAND Flash orientados al consumidor, justo cuando la demanda por parte de grandes corporaciones es voraz.

• Inventarios históricamente bajos

Según datos recientes, los inventarios de DRAM han caído a tan solo entre 2 y 4 semanas de suministro — cifras que no se veían desde 2018.

Con un stock tan reducido, cualquier pico de demanda — ya sea de fabricantes, ensambladores de PCs o consumidores finales — provoca desequilibrios graves. En un mercado así, los minoristas y ensambladores enfrentan dilemas difíciles: gastar más en módulos caros o retrasar ventas — y muchos optan por aumentar precios.

Consecuencias visibles: precios disparados y falta de stock

• DRAM y RAM DDR5 se encarecen hasta más del doble

Durante 2025, los aumentos de precio han sido escandalosos. En algunos mercados, kits DDR5 de 32 GB han experimentado incrementos entre 163 % y 619 % desde septiembre.

En promedio, los incrementos en contratos de DRAM han rondado entre 15 % y 20 % inicialmente, pero en 2025 el alza acumulada ha llegado a un 171,8 % año contra año.

Fabricantes de PCs ya han empezado a reflejar esto en sus productos: un ensamblador importante anunció que aumentará el precio de sus equipos de forma concreta a partir de diciembre de 2025, justificando que el coste de RAM y SSDs se ha disparado.

• SSDs y almacenamiento también sufren

No solo la RAM: los chips NAND (usados en SSDs) también están escasos. Algunos fabricantes ya vendieron toda su producción para 2026.

Según declaraciones recientes de directivos del sector, los precios de NAND se han duplicado en apenas seis meses.

Como resultado, actualizar almacenamiento o construir PCs nuevas se ha vuelto — en muchos mercados — considerablemente más caro.

• Marcas históricas abandonan el mercado de consumo

Quizás la señal más alarmante: una marca tradicional en RAM y SSD para consumidores abandonará su negocio “doméstico”.

Ese abandono no solo es un síntoma de la crisis, sino un acelerador: con menos proveedores dedicados al consumidor, la competencia disminuye y los pocos módulos disponibles se encarecen aún más.

• Estas dificultades ahora afectan a todos los sectores: PCs, móviles, consolas, electrónica de consumo

El impacto se siente más allá del mercado “pro”. Con precios de memoria y almacenamiento al alza, expectación de mayores costos sobre smartphones, laptops, consolas, mini-PCs, etc.

Algunos fabricantes ya advierten a sus clientes que los próximos lanzamientos podrían ser más caros — o que la producción de ciertos modelos se retrase.

Para los consumidores “hobby”, entusiastas o gamers, montar o actualizar un PC ha dejado de ser algo previsible: los precios varían mucho, el stock es limitado y los ensambladores — al menos algunos — limitan ventas o ajustan precios al alza.

Decisiones de las empresas: prioridades, estrategia y reconfiguración del mercado

La situación no ha pasado desapercibida para los actores principales del ecosistema tecnológico. Muchos ya tomaron decisiones drásticas.

Uno de los movimientos más simbólicos es el de la empresa estadounidense (especialista en memorias) que decidió dejar de vender sus productos orientados al consumidor. A partir de 2026 centrará su producción exclusivamente en memoria para data-centers e IA. Esto evidencia que los fabricantes priorizan la demanda rentable y estratégica sobre el consumidor tradicional.

Por su parte, fabricantes de PCs, portátiles y otros dispositivos han empezado a ajustar sus estrategias: algunos advierten sobre posibles alzas, otros ya subieron precios o recortaron características.

Además, datos recientes muestran que varios productores han vendido toda su capacidad de producción de NAND / DRAM para 2026, dejando poco o nada disponible para consumo general.

Analistas del sector advierten que este “superciclo” de demanda — impulsado por IA — podría mantenerse al menos hasta 2027. Si no hay inversiones masivas en nuevas fábricas, el desequilibrio oferta-demanda podría prolongarse varios años.

Qué significa para consumidores, gamers, makers e interés general

1. Comprar/componer un PC será más caro

Si estás por armar o actualizar un PC: espera pagar bastante más por la RAM y el SSD, y posiblemente ver menos disponibilidad o tiempos de espera más largos. Módulos que antes costaban razonablemente podrían estar costando el doble o el triple.

2. Renovaciones y upgrades se vuelven difíciles

Para quienes solo querían mejorar su PC con más RAM o cambiar el disco por un SSD, la situación es complicada: precios altos, escasez, menos oferta — y riesgo de pagar caro por algo que hoy ya vale caro.

3. Impacto en precios de laptops, portátiles, consolas, incluso smartphones

Las alzas no se quedan en los PCs de escritorio: fabricantes de laptops, consolas, dispositivos móviles, y equipos de bajo-coste pueden verse obligados a trasladar los costos al consumidor. Esto puede hacer que renovación de equipos sea más costosa o demorada.

4. Menos opciones “económicas” o de entrada

Con marcas de memoria orientadas al consumidor saliendo del mercado, los kits “baratos” o gama media se volverán escasos o desaparecerán, afectando especialmente a estudiantes, consumidores conscientes del presupuesto, hobistas o “makers”.

5. Riesgo de efecto dominó en toda la industria tecnológica

La escasez de memoria también amenaza con frenar lanzamientos de PCs, portátiles, consolas, e incluso ralentizar innovaciones — porque si no hay memoria asequible, los fabricantes no pueden producir a escala eficiente.

¿Qué se espera en 2026 (y por qué la crisis podría durar)?

  • Se prevé que los precios de DRAM y NAND sigan en aumento: algunos informes estiman incrementos trimestrales del 30 % al 50 % durante 2026.
  • Muchas de las producciones planificadas ya están vendidas — lo que deja poco margen para nuevos pedidos de consumidores.
  • La expansión de nueva capacidad productiva (fábricas de semiconductores, nuevas líneas de DRAM/NAND/HBM) lleva años y requiere inversiones gigantescas. No se espera un alivio rápido.
  • Si la demanda por IA y centros de datos continúa en alza — como todo indica — la prioridad por memoria de alto rendimiento seguirá, dejando al usuario promedio en desventaja.

¿Qué pueden hacer los usuarios ahora? Consejos prácticos

  • Si necesitas una PC nueva, SSD o RAM pronto: considera comprar cuanto antes. Los precios podrían seguir subiendo, y el stock podría reducirse aún más.
  • Si ya tienes un sistema decente, posponer upgrades puede ser una estrategia razonable — no conviene gastar mucho en kits caros ahora si puedes esperar.
  • Presta atención a kits “usados” o módulos de segunda mano (siempre que confíes en el vendedor), con cautela: en momentos de escasez, ese tipo de mercado suele activarse.
  • Para builders o entusiastas: planifica con anticipación. Condiciones normales de abastecimiento pueden no volver hasta 2027 o más allá.
  • Si vas a comprar componentes, revisa bien compatibilidades: con la subida de precio, vale más asegurarse de que compras lo que realmente necesitas.

Un punto de inflexión en la industria del hardware

La combinación de una demanda sin precedentes originada por la explosión de la inteligencia artificial, decisiones estratégicas de fabricantes, y stocks mínimos ha generado una de las crisis de memoria más profundas en décadas. Lo que hasta hace poco era un componente relativamente barato — la RAM o un SSD — ahora se ha convertido en un lujo, en muchos mercados.

Esto no solo cambia la dinámica del hardware para entusiastas o gamers, sino que también impacta la industria tecnológica completa — desde fabricantes de portátiles hasta compañías de smartphones y consolas.

Si las predicciones se cumplen, la “normalidad” en precios y disponibilidad no regresará pronto: 2026 y 2027 se perfilan como años de altos costos, escasez y una reconfiguración permanente del mercado de componentes.

Para quienes planean upgrades, builds o compras importantes — la recomendación es urgente: evaluar bien qué necesitan, anticiparse y comprar pronto, o asumir que tendrán que pagar más.

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